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drought risks


PREPARE NOW OR PAY LATER!

Droughts are a recurring feature of the Australian landscape. They always have been. So to be in the business of farming is to be in the business of preparing for and managing drought. Once governments believed they should assist farmers to cope with the devastating effects of drought. Now government policy has changed. There is a growing expectation that you need to be sel-reliant. Some assistance is available in "exceptional circumstances" but this is quite limited in nature and is rarely offered.

So in order to face the risk of drought which will inevitably occur, we need to carefully plan in advance how we can best manage it. In particular we need to focus on what we can do in order to limit the costs, and loss of income, which occur during the drought. In other words we prepare now in order to pay less later.

The purpose of this brochure and the accompanying checklist is to help you do that.

MEET ALAN AND SALLY NINO

Al and Sally Nino are farmers from Sea Lake. Their farm adviser is Murray Grey. They own 1800 ha, which they principally crop although they also run around 500 Merino ewes.

As you read this brochure you will see how Al and Sally cope with drought planning.

The Ninos have a planning day with Murray Grey in which they define their mission. They set specific goals in relation to their finances, the management and development of themselves, their natural resource management and the productivity of the farm.

THE STARTING POINT: KNOW WHERE YOU ARE GOING

Whenever we plan for the future we need to start firstly by defining our mission for our farming enterprise. When we have clearly defined goals our path to achieving them is also more clearly defined. Droughts are events which can frustrate us as we move toward our goals. However, frustrating business set backs are not unique to farming. No matter what business we are in we will encounter a few "roadblocks" along the way. Our job is to plan our business so that we achieve our goals despite the presence of droughts

What is drought?

Drought Definition
Climatologists and farmers define droughts a little differently. Climatologists focus upon rainfall deficits while farmers generally define drought based upon local effects. Consequently a farmer who has low crop yields or high feeding costs resulting from low rainfall, would be regarded as suffering from drought.

Al and Sally Nino look up rainfall records for Sea Lake and find the accompanying graphs. It is clear that severe droughts have occurred in 1902, 1914, 1938, 1940, 1967, 1982 and 1994.

annual rainfall chart growing season rainfall chart

How frequently do droughts occur?
Farming is clearly a risky business, as seasons vary between excellent and drought. In effect we take risks and gamble on outcomes each year. Since this is the case we need to know what the risks are we face, ie what are the odds for each year's decisions? The way to do that is to examine the monthly rainfall data for as long as records exist, then classify each year as being Excellent, Above Average, Average, Dry or Drought.
Al and Sally Nino attend a drought?planning workshop at which they receive local rainfall data dating back to 1896. They calculate the growing season rainfall for each year and use the following method for classifying seasons.
Excellent season
Good season
Average season
Below Average
Drought season
> 295 mm
24-295 mm
195-245 mm
120-195 mm
< 120 mm
By counting how many seasons fall into each category they calculate the following historic probabilities:
Season
Excellent
Above Average
Average
Below Average (Dry)
Drought
Total
Probability
0.16
0.17
0.30
0.28
0.09
1.00
Percentage
16%
17%
30%
28%
9%
100%
Al and Sally may refine their estimate of probabilities by also taking note of estimated available moisture at start of season.
Deciding the Drought Risks For Your Farm
You can carry out much the same function as Al and Sally Nino by obtaining the historic rainfall data for a locality near your farm. Farms with a long history of keeping accurate records can of course rely upon their own records.

If you attend a local drought planning seminar, figures from a range of centres will be avaliable for analysis. Alternately the Bureau of Meteorology has data for many centres throughout the Mallee.

Principals for Managing Drought

In order to effectively manage drought we need to keep in mind a few guiding principles.
STRATEGIC PLANNING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE PROBLEM ARISES

When we have a known risk the time to plan for it is before the risk comes to pass. So just as you plan to cover the risk of fire before your house burns, so you need to plan strategies for managing drought before it comes. Sure, once the house is on fire there is still a number of decisions you need to make concerning how to fight it and how to rebuild after the event.

These decisions are seen as tactical decisions relating to fire management. However, decisions regarding house insurance and fire prevention are regarded as strategic decisions. This publication focuses on your strategic approach to drought, rather than on the tactics you might adopt once you are in the middle of a drought.

FARMING IS ABOUT BEST~BET DECISION MAKING
Not all decisions will, in hindsight, prove to be good decisions. All we can hope for is a high 'batting average' with respect to making good decisions, when we 'play' in the risky game called farming. To achieve this we need to assess our risks. That is why it was so important for A and Sally Nino to determine the probabilities of each season type. Of course, other businesses which deal in risk have to do the same. For instance, the insurance industry assesses the probabilities of risky events, before providing insurance cover.

There is little point in covering your drought risk while leaving all other bases uncovered. We therefore need to aim at managing all our risks. These include drought risk, personal and staff risks, finance risks, marketing risks, enter prise management risks, natural resource risks

Al and Sally Nino decide to commence their strategic planning now, in the relative calm of an average season.

They also decide to subscribe to a weather/climate forecasting service in an attempt to better assess their future drought risks. They believe that this, in combination with their accurate knowledge of historic drought risks, will enable them to make better (but not perfect) best-bet decisions.

Together with Murray Grey they also review all the farm's risk management strategies as well as their strategies for dealing with drought. This review results in taking out salary continuation insurance. They also review the risks associated with sowing crops. They take into account research from the Birchip Cropping Group and the Mallee Research Station when deciding upon time of sowing, choice of crop varieties and cultivation practices. In the last case they aim to minimize the risk of soil loss while still achieving sound profits.

What Can I Do To Manage Drought?

Al and Sally Nino have a planning day with Murray Grey and set the following goals:

Within ten years establish an off farm investment, (possibly commercial property in Melbourne) valued at around $300,000. AI Nino's friend, Angus Cross, has a similar investment which is funded 70% by borrowing, at 7.3%, and 30% from farm profits of $90,000 which had been accumulated over the last 8?10 years. The Cross's investment property produces a cash surplus of $9,000 per annum, and is making steady, albeit moderate capital gains.

AI and Sally believe such an investment would provide a safety net income as well as a capital reserve which could be cashed in during an emergency.

As a stepping stone to building up the $90,000 deposit, the Ninos plan to invest surplus funds from good years, into Farm Management Deposits.

CREATE A BUFFER FOR FUTURE YEARS
The time-honoured approach to managing drought is to create a reserve in good years which can be drawn upon in drought years. Of course you need good years and some clear goal setting plus some discipline for this to occur. This technique is widely practiced by Australian farmers. Drought buffers can be created in three common forms.

In good years build cash reserves
Surplus funds can be placed with lenders into term deposits. Such reserves, however, only attract relatively low interest rates.

In good years deposit funds into Farm Management Deposits (FMD's)
By placing surplus funds into Farm Management Deposits, AI and Sally will be able to achieve a tax deduction in the year of deposit for the full amount. The full amount of the Farm Management Deposits earns interest at commercial rates. (Different banks offer different rates.)

When deposits are withdrawn, the money is added to that year's taxable income. However, this may not result in a big tax bill, as the funds from the redeemed deposits will be added to what is possibly a negative taxable income in the drought year. There is a 20% "withholding tax" on redeemed deposits. Although this tax is irritating to most farmers, it does not mean you are paying 20% of your deposit money as additional tax. It simply means that 20% of the redeemed deposit money is withheld by the Australian Tax Office and is a credit towards your next year's tax payment. If you are in "serious financial difficulty" you can apply to AFFA (Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Australia) for a "Deduction Exemption Certificate". If awarded you will not need to pay the "withholding tax'.

In good years build up off farm investments This has been another successful strategy practiced by many farmers. To achieve it farmers need to generate a sufficient surplus to act as a deposit, then find the right property. Finally they need to finanace the property.

This investment should be positively geared, ie income from property rent should exceed the total of interest costs and other property costs. The surplus generated can assist during drought years. Negatively geared property only creates a drain on farm funds which will exacerbate drought year problems.

Other options include building up a share portfolio or placing money in a superannuation fund. However, superannuation funds cannot be accessed to help with a negative cash flow in drought years.

TIGHTLY MANAGE YOUR FINANCE

You can only maintain disciplined and focused financial control if you have a system in place for achieving this. Such a system will generally involve:

Competently operate a computerized cash book A well set up and operated computerized cashbook provides an easy mechanism for reporting on business performance and for achieving excellent financial control. It also saves a lot of time.

Al & Sally Nino working on the computerised cashbook

Prepare drought budgets if droughts are forecast
When Climatologists warn of a possible drought, it does not mean a drought will happen. It is, however, an indicator that the probability of a drought is increased. In these circumstances it is wise to prepare a drought budget so that you are well organised to manage a difficult year.

Maintain a low cost structure
During a downturn in any industry, the farms which are best placed to survive are those with the lowest cost structures. These farms are most able to maintain profitability during tough times, such as droughts or price crashes. Two important ways to achieve this are, to keep machinery overhead costs and labour costs per cropped hectare low. Benchmarking and comparative analysis provide a mechanism for analysing farm cost structures. You can access this service by contacting WARMPlan or your local farm management consultant.

Al and Sally Nino have a computer, but don't at present operate an effective computerized cashbook. The computer is mainly used by their two children, who play games on it. Because the GST is looming, and also because they want better financial control, they enroll in the VFF Computerised Farm Management Project in a course at Sea Lake. At the course they learn how to professionally set up and operate a computerized cashbook. They also enroll in Stage 2 of the program where a consultant from the VFF project helps them implement what they learned at the group training day.

After the training, Sally Nino says, 1 can now speedily enter the farm's financial data, and with a few minutes' work, generate all the reports we need to manage and control our business".

AI Nino says “It is relatively easy to alter our budget on the computer, so as to convert it into a drought year budget. This will help us better manage the next drought when it comes".

Murray Grey, their consultant, says, "I'm impressed by the ease with which we can obtain the data we need for analysing the farm business. It's just what we need".

The Ninos plan to join a benchmarking program so they can benchmark and compare their cost structure. They are particularly keen to achieve low overhead costs

MANAGE YOURSELF

When droughts occur most farmers find them very stressful. The stress is particularly difficult because it is prolonged. Because we are Mallee farmers, we will inevitably face this periodic stress. We can greatly benefit by planning now, how to best respond in a mental/emotional sense to the next drought.

During the 1994/95 drought both Al and Sally had felt irritable and flat. So much so that some important decisions were not made correctly.

In particular decisions relating to when to sell and feed livestock. Al Nino says, If I had felt more like my usual self I would not have left matters drift. But because I felt so flat I was much less decisive".

Al and Sally decide to be prepared for the next drought by:

  • Talking about how they feel to each other and to friends.
  • Seeking out and attending drought discussion groups and seminars to help focus on key management decisions. Knowing what to do relieves a lot of stress.
  • Maintaining outside interests such as tennis, football and holidays (even if they are a bit cheaper).
  • Starting a new positive project such as painting part of the house.
  • Learning and practicing the techniques of relaxation /meditation. Al believes Sally is easier to live with now she relaxes/meditates. Sally, however, says the same about Al.

Airline pilots learn how to cope with a landing emergency by studying their options and learning how to execute them in a flight simulator. This is done prior to the emergency. So when the real life emergency occurs they are prepared.

Farmers need to adopt the same approach to drought, ie during normal years study how to handle a drought. When the drought occurs they can face it feeling prepared.

How can I respond to the business management challenges of drought?
Stress rapidly builds up when we don't know how to cope with a situation we face. So a lot of stress-relief is achieved when we know we have the best management skills available for managing drought. That is why it is so important to seek out and attend drought-planning seminars and obtain competent professional advice. Because droughts are periodic events, many young farmers have never experienced them. They can however learn a lot from other people's experience. One of the best ways to do this is to attend a drought?planning seminar before the drought occurs.

How can I respond to the emotional challenges of drought? Most publications about drought focus upon physical and financial aspects, but omit any reference to their emotional impact. This is a mistake, as people who are emotionally stressed by work are more likely to be affected by anxiety and depression. When this is prolonged, as is the case in drought, it can be harmful both with respect to work performance and health. Stressed managers are less able to react constructively to the challenges faced. Ways of responding to this stress are:

  • Gain the skills you need to make the
  • decisions you face.
  • Share how you feel with family and friends.
  • Learn how to relax/meditate.
  • Maintain outside interests and social contacts.
  • Setup a new low cost project which will keep you positively focused.

Group Support Helps
The sharing of experience and knowledge in groups provides a valuable form of support, especially during difficult situations such as drought. This sharing is valuable as we seek to arrive at the best technical and financial solutions during droughts. It is also of great value in providing emotional support.

MANAGE YOUR NATURAL RESOURCES

Preserve your soils, vegetation and pastures

Duststorm in the Mallee

Minimizing loss from fire

Fire risks increase during drought times to increased dryness. Normal fire prevention practices are particularly important during drought.

For a farm to be viable in the long run it needs to maintain or improve its natural resource base. This is not happening when topsoil is being blown away during a drought and remnant vegetation is being destroyed. Soil loss is largely related to the type of cultivation system being used, with minimum tillage practices providing the best protection. Remnant vegetation is best protected by fencing it off so that livestock cannot eat re-growth or otherwise damage it. Contact your local NRE representative to talk about funding for fencing out remnant vegetation and stock containment areas.

94 drought

drought paddock

Al and Sally Nino lost soil during a windstorm during the 1994/95 drought. The loss occurred in paddocks left bare after cultivation. Although there is still some debate regarding the merits of direct seeding vs fallow, and the impact of these practices on yields, there is no argument about our need to preserve our natural resource base.

Al and Sally decide to concentrate on systems based on minimum tillage and stubble retention. They also establish a stock containment area in order to prevent overgrazing and soil loss during the next drought.

MANAGE YOUR LIVESTOCK

Al and Sally Nino decide to retain sufficient wheat each year to fully hand feed their ewes for five months. In their case this amounts to around 500 ewes x 2 1 weeks x 5 kg/week, ie 5 3 tonnes.

The Ninos have sufficient storage readily available. AI Nino, says, "The carry-over process often results in a higher selling price being achieved when the grain is eventually sold. We have established a low cost drought reserve".

The Ninos have been fortunate to recently connect to the Northern Mallee Pipeline, which provides an assured supply of good quality water. They have also worked with a consultant provided by WARMPlan to help them design a farm water system which will meet their needs in all circumstances.

Establish a mechanism for feeding livestock during the next drought

There are severe penalties associated with selling stock during drought. Due to the oversupply and the generally poor condition of stock, most livestock are sold at a great discount. To avoid this livestock need to be either sold early (and if possible in prime condition), or retained and fed. The best option for breeding livestock (particularly young breeding stock), is to feed them. Consequently a feed reserve needs to be established. Studies suggest that the most cost efficient feed reserve is one which will fully hand feed breeding stock for around five months. There are many systems available for achieving this including:
  • Retaining and storing some grain over winter. This grain is not sold until it is clear that no drought has developed.
  • Create hay or silage reserves.
  • Create living fodder reserves such as Saltbush or Tagasaste.
  • Ensure your water supply will carry you through the next drought
if stock water runs out great management difficulties are faced. The options for resolving the situation are high cost options. These include
  • Carting water
  • Forced selling of livestock
Consequently it is very important to ensure that you have a good quality water supply available on your farm to meet all future needs. Water levels and quality should be monitored and problems like weeds and algae controlled.

Maintain your water system

Channels and dams should be regularly cleaned and troughs, tanks, pipes and pumps checked for leaks and carefully maintained.

THINGS I CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR DROUGHT

ISSUES TO CONSIDER

1. SET CLEAR GOALS
Have a clear mission

• If you want to get "there", you need to know where "there" is.
2. KNOW THE RISKS YOU FACE
• Calculate drought probabilities (ie historic risk)
• Improve your estimate of future drought risks


• Base this on historic rainfall data
• Weather forecasting is improving. It sharpens the way we look into the future
3. CREATE A BUFFER FOR FUTURE DROUGHTS
• in good years build up cash reserves

• in good years build deposit funds into Farm Management Deposits
• in good years build up other off farm investments


• Cash reserves provide a safety valve for cash strapped drought years.
• These bonds are a specialised form of cash reserves with some tax advantages
• Off farm investments also provide an income for bad years
4. TIGHTLY MANAGE YOUR FINANCES
• Competently operate a computerised cash book

• Prepare drought budgets if droughts are forecast (ie probability is increased)


• You always need excellent financial control, particularly during and after a drought
• To be forewarned is to be forearmed. Early in drought prepare drought scenario. Know in advance how it is likely to affect you.
5. MANAGE YOURSELF
• Plan how you will respond professionally to the next drought

• People are our most important resource. Plan a healthy, balanced lifestyle.

• Droughts bring new issues which may never have been encountered. Often we are on a steep learning curve

• The prolonged stress of drought can lower our management capacity We need to adopt strategies for managing the stress of drought
6. MANAGE YOUR NATURAL RESOURCES
• Plan a cropping sequence which preserves your natural resources base of soil, vegetation and pastures.
• Plan to minimise loss from fire.


• In past droughts significant soil loss and damage to remnant vegetation has occurred. Sound management practices can reverse this.
• Fire risks increase during drought due to the increased dryness.
7. MANAGE YOUR LIVESTOCK
• Establish a mechanism for feeding livestock during the next drought



• Ensure your water supply will carry you through the next drought


• Fodder reserves enable us to avoid the penalties associated with buying fodder at possibly very high prices during the next drought. Fodder reserves can be hay, silage, grain reserves, fodder trees or bushes etc.
• In some cases the cost of lack of water is greater than feeding costs. The complications of managing drought is greatly increased if there is insufficient water.

Your next step

To help you assess your level of drought preparedness, we suggest you complete the questionnaire.

To further assist you we also suggest you attend a drought-planning seminar. A number of these seminars have already been run in the Mallee. They were very well receivedand more seminars are planned for the future.



Healthy Viable Mallee Farms



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