Our Changing Society
The First Forum in The Age Millennium Series
VISION 21:
Defining Our Future
THE PREMIER OF VICTORIA,
MARCH 11, 1999
Picture this - it is the year 2060. Australia is one of the world's greatest economic success stories. We have continued the growth of the final years of the 20th century. We have established our reputation as a highly skilled, innovative and competitive country.
Our population has increased 50% above the level at the turn of the century to 28 million. Our multicultural experience is internationally acknowledged as a model of tolerance and harmony.
Australians are the healthiest people and enjoy the highest quality of life in the world, with among the lowest rates in the Western world of cancer and heart disease due to a growing focus on preventative health.
More Australians than in any other country successfully complete university studies in mathematics and the sciences with a majority of workers now holding down positions in high technology, medical research, agricultural sciences, food development, packaging and transportation systems - industries in which Australia has found a niche in terms of trade and investment.
Australia is seen not only as a cultural centre of international renown, but we have succeeded in making our arts and cultural activities more accessible to our citizens than ever before.
Our universities are world renowned for their advanced technologies curricula which have seen Australia become a significant provider of intellectual skills for European, American and Asian corporate giants who conduct 'follow the sun' operations around the globe.
Australia has become one of the most creative and innovative countries as the result of the introduction of a competitive tax system which has encouraged investment in research and development and venture capital.
South-eastern Australia is the food bowl of Asia Pacific. Sustainable economic and employment growth exists across country Australia where the necessary infrastructure and services, especially in regard to transport and broadband and satellite links, have negated the traditional barrier of the tyranny of distance.
Telstra, having been privatised for more than 50 years, has become one of the top five global telecommunications giants.
That's my picture of what 2060 could be. But, of course, that is 61 years away and today we're still in 1999 - the eve of the new millennium - and it is our challenge now to define how we will get to that point in 2060. We are a young country and you would expect us to be sufficiently versatile and innovative to meet such a challenge. And yet, Australia is shirking some of the most fundamental and essential steps for us to progress towards our 2060 landscape.
Only this week we have seen the Senate jeopardise the employment prospects of hundreds of thousands of young Australians by voting to scrap youth wages.
It is not just the short term economic and social effects of youth unemployment which makes this issue so critical to our future. If we are to realise a vision in which employment is readily available and fulfilling, we need to create the opportunity and engender a strong work ethic.
We are also in grave danger of failing to grasp the opportunity for generational tax reform. The people of Australia have clearly indicated their will for tax reform to proceed yet here we are, six months after the last Federal election, seeing the prospects of reform being stopped by the Senate.
We are also witnessing continued attempts to undermine further the privatisation of Telstra, a vital ingredient in Australia's progress towards 2060, and one which would deliver the rewards of share ownership to thousands more Australians.
You really have to wonder what sort of country this is when we are still hamstrung by misplaced ideology into stopping tax reform, privatisation and the opportunities for young people to work.
In stark contrast, countries which only 10 years ago were part of the communist bloc are busily deregulating their economies and privatising government enterprises. There is less evidence of ideological hang-ups in those places than there is in the Senate in Canberra!
Similarly, just imagine the debate which went on in the new euro countries about the adoption of a single European currency. The debate continued for over two decades but eventually resulted in the adoption of one currency by 11 countries with centuries of cultural difference.
As long as we cling to outdated models of service delivery and public ownership, we will be in no shape to enter to the 21st century, much less build the society we are looking towards in 2060. This is a self-inflicted handicap which is within our power to resolve.
This becomes all the more urgent when contrasted with those things which are clearly beyond our control. In making this point, I emphasise we need in Australia to face the reality that we live in a global, or planetary, economic and social environment.
The recent birth of the euro currency confirms the emergence of the European bloc as a single and very substantial economic force. The bloc essentially has crunched the original G7 into G3, with the United Kingdom poised to join. The G3 which now effectively exists - the US, Europe and Japan - will dominate world trade to such a degree that there will be a very real risk lesser powers will suffer as a result of an increase in trade protection between the G3 and the rest of the world.
Furthermore, there is additional scope for increased concentration of economic power across the Americas and in Eastern Europe and Asia. I can envisage in the next decade or so Canada and South American countries more formally joined to the US for reasons of currency and trade. This conglomeration of economic power brings with it the advantage of being able to achieve new efficiencies in economic management and the ability to implement consistent policies across economies.
The experiences of Australia highlight the importance of consistency of policy. We have endured numerous debates and two elections on the subject of national tax reform. Finally an election has been won on the issue and now reform is being stymied in the Senate.
Contrast our tax experience with that of Ireland where they are able to state now what rate of tax will be paid up to 2020. The benefits of this consistent approach to the Irish economy are enormous - just witness the massive growth in foreign investment, mainly from the United States, in information technology industries. This has transformed Ireland from a poor agricultural economy to a highly skilled and much wealthier European success story.
Innovation and competition are also key pressure points of the modern era. The pursuit of excellence therefore must become a way of life for Australians
Science, especially in information technology and communications, has put the accelerator on the forces of change in our era. Consider that in 1969 - only 30 years ago - the Apollo 11 spacecraft landed men on the moon in a mission driven by significantly less technology than is contained in a modern motor car. Since then we have reached the point at which more than 90% of people in the workforce in developed countries are in jobs involving some level of digital technology, and technology pervades our communal and home lives.
We work in Internet years in which the extent of technological advance is being dramatically compressed in time. The result is that the next four to five years will see technology move ahead on a scale at least equal to the entire sum of its development in the past three decades. This will create enormous opportunities, and require new approaches to keep up with the pace of change.
Policies are needed to inject venture capital and encourage innovation in our intelligent industries - information and communications technology and multimedia, pharmaceuticals and engineering, to name a few - and advance the amazing revolution which is taking place in the food industry in country Victoria.
We must concentrate on the possibilities of the future rather than being constrained by immediate considerations. Experience is showing increasingly that taking the long term view is not the equivalent of window gazing. It has become a vital part of how business and government operate. It requires goal setting backed up by research and development and practical strategies that produce real and tangible outcomes.
The challenge of the new global economy requires us all to think differently, to look at examples of excellence wherever they may be found around the world, and to set our own standards of excellence which in turn will be used as a benchmark for other nations and economies.
We must never use globalisation as an excuse to sit back and assume that our destiny is outside our hands. We must set challenges for ourselves and be ready to alter or adapt our goals as the global economic environment changes.
One further factor is vital - that we demonstrate a more concerted, Australian approach. We might well try to do our best as State jurisdictions, however, as individual States we are insignificant in global terms. What we are doing here is not just for Victoria, but for Australia as a whole, because the only realistic view is of Victoria in a national and global context. Australia and Australians, in all their diversity, must stand united in the quest for the future.
The focus inevitably rests on young people at a time like this when we look forward: this is their time. We place singular emphasis on ways to encourage them, prepare them for life, engage them actively in community affairs, cater for their special needs, and, where and when necessary, support them.
Drugs have been highlighted as one of the major social problems of our era, manifesting the alienation and lack of hope that beset many of our community today.
But we must tackle the causes - the mental disorders, especially depression - which underly these crippling social problems. The magnitude of this issue is illustrated by the fact that one in five Australians suffer some form of mental illness, among which depression is predominant. By 2020, according to the World Health Organisation, depressive disorder will rank No.1 on the list of the world's 10 most common medical conditions.
At the end of the month I will meet with 12 of the nation's leading experts on depression and mental disorder. Australia has a vast body of knowledge in mental health, and I intend to bring these people together to distil the basis for what I hope will be a national strategy in this campaign for life.
I will submit to the Premier's Conference on April 9 proposals for the establishment of a national Commission of Cause to address the reasons which underly a range of our social problems.
These are some of the specific measures and trends occurring around the world and in our society that we need to tackle. More broadly, our objective by the turn of the millennium should be to redefine the goals we need to be in good global shape in 2060 and to guarantee Australians the opportunity to enjoy a world class quality of life.
And in my view, they are these:
1. a strong, independent, tolerant and harmonious Australia in which future generations are able to enjoy economic prosperity, social stability and security;
2. a sustainable population growth program;
3. Australia to be the cleanest, greenest country in the world;
4. Australians to aspire to the achievement of excellence, and reward for those whose endeavour leads to success; and
5. an outward looking Australia fully participating in the global community with long term planning and consistent policy as its foundations.
There will be those who say what I have outlined today is not possible. But I say to them, why is it impossible? Sixty years ago Australia's population was about a third of what it is today. Sixty years ago university was an exclusive preserve. Sixty years ago we ignored Asia Pacific. Sixty years ago we dug it out of the ground or we killed it.
History tells us it is not impossible to achieve the 2060 landscape. It is not beyond our capacity.
These now are the critical years for Australians to unite in determining their future direction and their nation's place in the world. Without question, this is the greatest legacy we could provide for the second century of Australian Federation.
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