and myths about them
Myths and fallacies currently influence governments in deciding population policies. Even the 2000 report on Replacement Migration from the United Nations Population Division is a fable for our times in its arguments about continuing population growth being essential in developed countries (never mind in the developing ones.)
The report argued that the demographic characteristics of the very low fertility countries must change if they are to end up with an economically sustainable age-structure'. Pro-natalist policies can be promoted to avert a supposed disaster of 'excessive population ageing'. Yet encouraging more local births may be evading and ignoring important issues - and would be a crying national shame while more than 23 million refugees are homeless and hungry.
Critics of the position of the UN report' have included Jill Curnow in a monograph on 'Myths and the Fear of an Ageing Population 2 and Henri Leridon writing in the bulletin, Population & Sociétés, of INED, the National French Institute For Demographic Studies, the primary public institution on demographic policy in France. 3 Leridon commented on the United Nations work on replacement immigration: 'To want to maintain at all costs the ratio of [aged to youth] is truly to try and fill the Danaïde's well.'
One reason for Australia fearing an ageing population can be from seeing the rural problems when the young people leave for cities. However, this is a problem of lack opportunities for the young - a lack of desirable employment - not the problem of too much work for the young that the 'ageing population' scare envisages.
The myths to expose
An important part of the myth of disaster from ageing populations is the fallacy that growth must be unending. This has been promoted by pressure groups that benefit from population growth through escalating values of real estate, mass markets, demands for building, and, in supporting immigration, importing cheap docile labor for unpleasant jobs, and already-skilled personnel that have not cost the reception country any expense in education and training.
However, there is less recognition that growth has downsides. Russell & Russell have surveyed the lessons of past civilisations which have grown beyond the resources available to them, and collapsed.4
The story of Easter Island is like a
microcosm of what we can see elsewhere in the world today. Prosperity
is not dependant upon continual quantitative growth and can be
destroyed by it.
show problems that increase with growing populations
Growth can stop without disaster. There are alternative advantages for profits and employment in a stable or even declining society. A look around Australia - or any country - shows so much qualitative improvement that is needed and possible that there should be no shortage of jobs and profits without requiring continual increased consumption and waste of diminishing resources.
If all the jobs that needed to be done were being done, including conserving resources and preventing waste, there need be no unemployment, even if there were fewer people needing new housing and commodities.
But the arguments for fearing an ageing population paradoxically include lack of younger workers to support them.
Mind-boggling figures have been thought up by the United Nations Population Division report on 'Replacement Migration' such as that to keep the support ratio of workers to dependents constant, South Korea, for example would need 94 million immigrants per year, 'almost twice its current population, adding up to 5.1 billion by 2050, that is 5/6ths of today's world population'. Immigrants themselves age - and so according to the growth myth, even more immigration would then be needed to support them.
There is overwhelming evidence against the myth that without continuing population growth, an ageing population could not be supported by its working members. Over the last fifty years the proportion of Australians aged under fifteen has shrunk to 20% while those aged over 65 has increased to 12% , with no noticeable difficulties, and over the next fifty years, proportions are expected to be 16% and 24%. Support ratios of workers to the elderly of 4:1 are not a problem for Western countries. The total dependency of old people in nursing homes is only on average 7 months for men and 2 years for women. On average, people require two years of substantial health care before their deaths - regardless of whether they are young or old.
Aged pensions are only one third of the total value of Commonwealth income support payments (1996-7 figures) and the proportion of self-funded retirees is increasing as superannuation becomes nearly universal. The greater problem that Australia should be facing is the increasing proportion of younger people who require support and are unemployable for many reasons, from minimal brain damage through drugs and accidents, to inadequate literacy. (With so much youth unemployment, why is Australia unable to skill and train its own young people, rather than importing them from developing countries?)
Most old people contribute to the community and the economy in inestimable voluntary work in every area, including as grandparents, who provided 68% of all informal child care in Australia in 1997, Today with better health, a higher proportion of older people are still capable of regular employment in many fields - the irony is that enforced retirement can now commence at 45 or 50. So much for the threatened shortage of workers.
On the other hand, the period of total dependency of children is increasing - even up to 24 years old. Their rearing and education costs far more in worker time and in expense than costs of the elderly. Fewer children and more elderly would be less burden on the 'workers' in between. The chief economic advantage is as a market for consumer goods and services that is greater than older people require. But who pays?
We can think - why should populations remain constant at their present possibly unsustainable levels? World population only reached one billion in the 19th century and it is now 6 billion and rising - and there are now no more 'empty' continents to pour into, only more extending deserts. The greatest contributions to civilisation have been made by small cities no bigger than Geelong.
At present Britain as well as Australia has pretty unnatural methods of segregated child-care and much needs to be done to make being a child and having children more enjoyable in shared community. The social drawbacks to one and two-child families are needless.
It is also desirable that the most civilised features of our Western heritage should not be submerged, but shared with the world - regardless of the races who inherit it.
1 Chamie, J. Director, Population Division, United Nations, New York, was the spokesman for the widely-reported press release, 'Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to declining and Ageing Populations?' January, 2000 and for the final report, March, 2000.
2 Curnow, J. (2000). Myths and the fear of an ageing population. Occasional paper prepared for Sustainable Population Australia.
3 Leridon, H. (2000) Vieillissement démographique et migrations: quand les Nations unies veulent remplir le tonneau des Danaïdes.... Population & Sociétés, No. 358. Translation by Sheila Newman
4 Russell, C. and Russell, W. M. S. (1999). Population Crises And Population Cycles. London: The Galton Institute.
5 Stanton, William. The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000:Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation. William. NI: Multiscience Publishing Company Ltd. 2003
The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000:Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation. William. NI: Multiscience Publishing Company Ltd. 2003
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