Sales by Australian Winemakers of Red Wine

in '000 litres.

Using the monthly data from January 1980 to December 2002, we use Parzen's ARAR model to produce forecasts for January 2003 to December 2005. Actual values from January 2003 are being added as they become available.

Focussing on the last section of the data we can see the pattern more clearly:

and the graph also shows the 95% confidence intervals for the forecasts.

The software package ITSM (Interactive Time Series Modelling) was used to produce these forecasts. It is distributed with Brockwell, P.J. and Davis, R.A. (1996), Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

The data are available in the Excel file, Red_Wine.xls.