Electricity production

in million kwh.

Using the quarterly data from March 1956 to December 1999, we use Parzen's ARAR model to produce forecasts for March 2000 to December 2002. Actual values from March 2000 are being added as they become available.

Focussing on the last section of the data we can see the pattern more clearly:

and the graph also shows the 95% confidence intervals for the forecasts.

The software package ITSM (Interactive Time Series Modelling) was used to produce these forecasts. It is distributed with Brockwell, P.J. and Davis, R.A. (1996), Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

The data are available in the Excel file, Electricity.xls.