Standards to Support National Cooperation in Applying Technology to VET
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1. VET, Educational
Applications and More General Applications
2. Widespread Adoption of Internet
Communications
2.1 Flexibility of Packet-switched Communications
2.2 Access Techniques: Speed, Permanence, Cost and Geographic Reach
3. Home Computers and
the Alternatives
4. Operating Systems
5. Central Role of Email and the
Web Browser
6. Java
7. Authentication, Security,
Computer Management and Content Regulation
8. Freely Available and Shareware
Software
9. Non-economic Barriers to
Computer Adoption in the Home
10. Implications for VET Flexible
Delivery
This section presents a vision of the foreseeable developments in Information Technology which are likely to be of importance to VET Flexible Delivery. Some trends can clearly be seen over a short term, say one to two years. Longer term trends are harder to predict, and a two to five year planning time frame is assumed.
Some of the trends are simply extrapolations of the rapid uptake and improving performance of IT. Other trends, such as those associated with Java, represent developments without parallel in the past.
The predictions made below are necessarily brief and do not explore all the potential developments or implications. The future of IT is, of course, a matter of fervent debate.
While software packages have been specially written for educational applications, and no-doubt these will grow in number and sophistication, many of the computing and communications needs of teachers and learners can be met by software, hardware and communications services which are developed for broader social and business users.
As computers and Internet communications become more prevalent in homes and workplaces, advances in software and communications protocols will lead to less expensive, easier to use and more powerful methods of supporting people working together in groups. This will be true for people working in the same office, factory or campus and for those who are located remotely.
The use of voice, text and potentially video one-to-one and one-to-a-group forms of communication, plus access to the World Wide Web, is likely to become the ubiquitous foundation for group and personal communications.
The following trends, therefore, refer to the development of IT in general, but with a focus on issues which are of special importance to VET Flexible Delivery:
1. Interoperability of communications systems and of software which uses particular file formats.
2. Independence from hardware and operating system platforms.
3. Cost-effectiveness, flexibility and ease of use and customisation by teachers and learners.
4. The ability to work over long distances and/or via communication links of restricted capacity.
Special purpose educational applications will still have a role, for instance for learners with limited computer and/or English literacy skills. One educational application which is rarely needed in ordinary business and social communications is the administration of tests, so this too may call for special software. Otherwise, it is reasonable to expect that educational needs will generally be met by the same software which is widely used by businesses. Indeed it could be argued that to use software other than this would diminish rather than enhance the vocational value for the learner.
It can safely be predicted that Internet communications will be adopted by a rapidly growing proportion of the population for social, recreational, educational and business purposes. Just as faxes and then mobile phones became standard business tools, so too dial-up Internet access, at least for email and WWW, can be expected to be a standard business tool in the next few years.
It is important to recognise that Internet communications is potentially much more than the most obvious applications of email, World Wide Web and Usenet newsgroups. An Internet connected computer has a unique address on the global Internet, and can simultaneously transact dozens or hundreds of two-way communication sessions with any other connected computer. These sessions are carried by small packets of information, which usually take less than a second to reach their destination anywhere in the world.
The Internet is a packet switched network. It closely resembles an electronic postal service and is very different from the point-to-point circuit switched telephone network. The communication sessions are typically bi-directional, with data being sent only as needed. Handshaking is used to resend packets to ensure that the messages arrive reliably.
This basic set of protocols, called TCP/IP, can be used on Local Area Networks (LANs) as well as on the global Internet, and it is common for LANs either to form part of the global Internet, or to form an 'intranet' which has carefully controlled connectivity to the Internet. Organisations with LANs at multiple sites can link them together via the Internet, and ensure privacy and security by encrypting all the inter-LAN traffic. Such Wide Area Networking (WAN) is important for VET providers, and includes the possibility of giving teachers and learners at home and in the workplace remote access to the provider's LAN.
The basic TCP/IP protocols are the foundation for many higher level protocols which enable particular kinds of communication, such as HTTP for the World Wide Web and SMTP for email. There is no limit to the number of higher level protocols which can run over the Internet. New protocols can be developed and while some become global standards, many new forms of communication can be created simply by devising a new protocol and writing computer programs to implement it. There is no need to register these higher level protocols with any standards body.
It could be argued that if everyone had permanent Internet connectivity - at home, at work and whilst mobile - and they possessed the necessary hardware and software, and if the costs were low enough and the speeds high enough, then there would be no need for the telephone network at all. This will not occur within next five years, but the extraordinary flexibility of packet switched communications - today the Internet's TCP/IP and in the future perhaps a higher speed protocols such as ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) - ensures that widespread Internet connectivity will occur in the next five years. This would be comparable to the adoption of telephones, cars and now mobile phones by the majority of the population.
Currently, most home and business users access the Internet using a telephone call to an Internet Service Provider, using a 33.6 kbps modem. While this mode of connection is likely to remain dominant for the next two to three years, at speeds increasing to 56 kbps to the home but remaining at 33.6 kbps to the ISP, a number of alternative access technologies will become increasingly popular.
One approach is to convert the existing telephone lines of the home or office into a Basic Rate ISDN service, which can support two 64 kbps direct digital links to the telephone network. This can provide faster dial-up access to ISPs, at 64 or 128 kbps.
Another approach is to use 'cable modems' on the Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) networks of Telstra, Optus and some other carriers in regional centres. These HFC cables are currently used for pay television but Telstra launched a high speed HFC Internet service in April 1997 and Optus is expected to launch a service too in 1998. For those institutions, businesses and homes with access to HFC cable, this may be the preferred form of access. Speeds of over half a megabit per second upstream and several megabits per second downstream are achievable.
One promising high speed Internet access technology is ADSL (Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line), which enables a carrier to send data on a standard telephone line at rates similar to an HFC cable modem, whilst the phone line carries ordinary analog phone calls. However the performance of ADSLs depends very much on the nature of the telephone line, and lines longer than a few kilometres will have diminished data carrying capacity. Telstra has trialed ADSL but is yet to deploy it commercially.
There are a number of other technologies for providing digital communications. One is Super High Frequency (SHF) microwave links over relatively short distances, around a kilometre or so. Another comprises an MDS or satellite channel normally used for pay TV to carry digital data to potentially thousands of users via special decoders, but the upstream link must by via a modem and a phone call.
VSAT bi-directional satellite Earth stations are an expensive way of providing bi-directional data links suitable for Internet connectivity, but they may be the only practical approach in remote regions at the present time.
Other possible technologies which may become practical in five years or so include the use of LEOS (Low Earth Orbiting Satellites) and helium filled, solar powered blimps permanently stationed in the stratosphere to provide microwave links within a radius of two hundred kilometres or so.
The demand for permanent, high-speed Internet connectivity can be met by many methods, including the installation of optical fibres to each home. In the foreseeable future, modem access at 33.6Kbps is likely to remain the most common approach, although lower speeds may result from limitations of the telephone network in both urban and rural areas. The uptake of ISDN for Internet access depends very much on how the new service is priced. Telstra's OnRamp Basic Rate ISDN service is available to most urban and many rural telephone users, depending, like ADSL, on the length and quality of the line.
Internet access via HFC is likely to be enthusiastically adopted once the services mature and costs decrease a little. It is likely to be widely adopted by those who can access it by 1999.
Australia is uniquely positioned for rapid take-up of Internet communications. Firstly we have a well earned reputation as early adopters of such things as VCRs and mobile phones. Secondly we have a newly deregulated telecommunications industry which is intended to give service providers greater access to the infrastructure of the telecommunications carriers, and so foster innovations in pricing and services. Thirdly, we have two high quality HFC networks in large areas of the capital cities; nowhere else do two HFC operators compete for the same customers.
Finally, Telstra's telephone network has now been almost entirely digitised and, with some exceptions in rural and remote areas, is a very reliable, high quality network which is capable of providing high speed (typically 33.6Kbps) modem calls and Basic Rate ISDN services to a large proportion of the population.
While the home/office computer will continue to be the best tool for conducting Internet communications, some alternative approaches are likely to emerge.
One is the 'Network Computer' (NC), variously described as a computer with or without a hard-disc, but always as one which depends entirely on a high capacity link to a central server. NCs are only likely to be practical on a LAN, HFC or ADSL links, or arguably a shared MDS or satellite channel. The adoption of network computers cannot be ruled out, but is not assumed in the following predictions.
Network computers are most likely to be of use in banks and other large organisations where a strictly limited set of tasks needs to be supported, and the management costs of thousands of computers must be minimised. Some VET classroom needs may fit this criteria.
Another approach to a limited subset of Internet communications is known as 'Web TV'. This uses the television as a display unit for World Wide Web and perhaps for email, if the system has a keyboard. Communication my be via a standard modem or by some other means. These systems have severe technical restrictions compared to the power and flexibility afforded by a personal computer. It is safe to predict that the 'home PC' will continue to grow rapidly in power and drop slowly in price. Home computer purchases are driven by the desire to play games, access the Internet (especially for interactive games with other users), do word-processing, run CD-ROM applications and generally assist children with their school work and 'computer literacy'.
A typical, full-function home computer of late 1998 is likely to cost around $2000, and comprise:
In view of Apple's recent decision to restrict licensing of Mac compatible manufacturers, it seems that the great majority of home computers sold will conform to the 'Wintel' standard and run a version of Microsoft Windows.
The question of file and application portability has bedevilled educational institutions for over a decade. Widespread educational adoption of the Apple II and the Macintosh platforms was driven both by their unique benefits and by aggressive marketing, but the systems, their software and often the resulting files were incompatible with the IBM PC platform which eventually become dominant in most other fields.
Hardware computing platforms, operating systems and their application programs, the file formats of those application programs and of new developments of 'middleware' which would overcome many of these difficulties are highly relevant to the VET sector as it attempts to standardise on a common set of tools, to improve interoperability between institutions, providers, learners and their workplaces.
An operating system can potentially run on several types of computer hardware, but in the past this has only been true of Unix, rather than the more user-friendly operating systems. An application program must be written for a particular operating system, and often for a particular hardware platform as well if the operating system runs on several types of machine.
Since a large portion of most programs is written to interface to a particular operating system, it is difficult to write and maintain a program which achieves similar functionality under differing operating systems. This has resulted in many applications being 'captive' to the operating system for which they were developed. Notable exceptions include some Microsoft and Adobe applications which are available for both Macintosh and Windows. It is instructive that only companies with such extensive resources can support complex application development for multiple operating systems.
The lack of application and user file portability between operating systems, and the differing skills needed to use each system means that the choice of operating system is vitally important in determining the ability of the user to inter-operate with other users and institutions. This is true whether the linkage is via the Internet, a modem call, or via data contained on floppy disc or CD-ROM.
Fortunately both Java (described in Section 6 below) and the use of powerful WWW browsers - most prominently Netscape's Navigator or Communicator, and Microsoft's Internet Explorer - make the choice of operating system and underlying hardware less important.
Ideally, there would be one operating system, which ran on several hardware platforms and, for argument's sake, combined the consistent, powerful and easily learnt graphical user interface of the Mac or perhaps Windows operating system, with the underlying strength, security and flexibility of the Unix operating system. However commercial interests have caused the most popular proprietary desktop operating systems to develop in their own incompatible ways rather than converge on a common standard.
Despite the arguments for the Macintosh operating system, and its hardware platform, it is not possible to foresee it playing a significant role in general IT activities, outside certain areas such as graphics where it has long been the established leader.
Unix, including the freely available compatible operating system Linux, is a sophisticated and robust operating system for a wide variety of hardware platforms.
It is not, however, possible to foresee these systems developing the consistent, easily learned user interface and suite of application programs which would allow them to compete with the dominant Windows and Macintosh environment on the desktop of most computer users. Unix systems will continue to play a major role as Internet and intranet servers.
For the great majority of learners and teachers, in the foreseeable future, the Windows operating system is likely to be used most commonly at home, at work and in educational institutes.
It is possible that Java versions of the most common applications may be developed in the next two years or so. For instance in early 1997, Corel released an experimental implementation of the Corel Office suite written in Java, which can be run from the net under any modern Web browser.
The two most prominent applications of Internet communications for the foreseeable future are email and access to World Wide Web sites. The ability of email to carry small to moderate sized files, and to support group discussions means it is a simple, understandable basis for many types of communication.
While Web browsers are easy to use, they are a rapidly developing into a tool with far greater capabilities than simply viewing HTML documents on Web sites. Firstly they are combining email, Usenet and soon probably voice and groupware communications functions into a single program. Secondly their ability to run 'plug-in' programs and Java extends their capability enormously, in ways which are of direct interest in both distance and classroom based education.
The ability to display text and graphics with increasingly sophisticated layout control is the most obvious function of a Web browser. Their capability for handling forms, to be filled in by the user and returned to the server (with encryption if desired) means that bi-directional communication can be supported. 'Plug-in' programs enable new kinds of material and new, potentially bi-directional communication protocols to be handled automatically within the familiar Web browser context.
These capabilities alone enable the provision of rich learning material via the Internet without the need for special software at the user's site. While the 'authoring' software for such material will continue to improve, teachers and course creators will need to learn new skills, and/or work with specialists, to create and manage such resources.
Java is a new programming language, based on the established C++ language, but optimised for platform-independent, Internet connected, security-conscious applications which involve graphic user interfaces.
The most prominent Web browsers: Netscape's Navigator and Communicator, and Microsoft's Internet Explorer both include a 'Java interpreter', which is a complete operating environment for Java programs. A Java program can be loaded from disc or from the Internet into the browser and will operate, depending on security restrictions, like any other program. It has full keyboard, pointing device, screen and sound capabilities, the ability to read and write files and the ability to communicate with other computers via the Internet.
Java programs at present are relatively slow compared to programs written in other languages, but that is unlikely to be a problem for most educational applications. The unique strengths of a Java program is that the one program will run on any Java equipped Web browser or any other Java interpreter, and also on Web browsers which are not connected to the Internet.
An important aspect of Java is that programs run in exactly the same way on any hardware platform and with any operating system. This true platform independence enables potentially very sophisticated educational applications to be written, without concern for the user's computer or operating system. Java programs can run independently, with each other and as part of a Web-browsing session. It is also possible for a Java program on one computer to run Java programs on any other computer it is networked to - potentially any computer via the Internet, subject to security restrictions.
Email and Web-browsing are powerful platform independent means of communication of obvious value to education. Java enables easy-to-use purpose specific computer programs to be created, with the teacher or course creator producing a single Java program which will run on all users' computers.
This makes the debate about operating systems less important than it has been in the past. Java's future seems assured, because of its unique attributes as a language and in particular because of its platform independence and Internet capabilities.
Digital signatures and related cryptographic methods provide highly reliable and easy to use methods by which a remote user can authenticate themselves when accessing a central server or Web site. The technical standards for digital signatures, and the legal framework for linking the user's public key with their identity are the subject of rapid development in Australia and other countries. The Federal Government has announced its support for the establishment of PARRA, a root authority for a Public Key Authentication Framework which will facilitate the widespread use of public-key cryptography in both the signing of digital documents and in authentication of remote users.
VET flexible delivery will be able take advantage of these developments in the next few years, but it is too early to set standards at this time.
While the threats of Internet communications being eavesdropped are easily over-estimated, some educational applications may be best conducted with end-to-end encryption to assure privacy and security. The secure HTTP protocol (HTTPS) is already implemented in the major Web-browsers, and separate encryption programs, most notably PGP, can be integrated with email client software. VET needs in this area are similar to that of many organisations and businesses.
There are two areas where VET's needs are likely to be more demanding than those of typical organisations and businesses, assuming that teachers and students are to be given full Internet connectivity and access to computers.
Firstly, there is the task of managing large numbers of computers, and the potentially large communicative requirements of their thousands of users. There are methods of easing this problem, such as securing the operating system of the PC in a protected area of the hard-disc, or the use of 'Network Computers' which are designed to be centrally managed. However it could be argued that Network Computers will not provide the full set of computing and communications capabilities which will be the standard for Internet connected PCs. Alternatively, perhaps Network Computers supporting Java will, over time, be capable of doing almost anything.
Secondly there is the task of protecting the institute's, learner's and teacher's computers, the networks and the administration computers from external attack and internal misuse. The simple answer is to locate the administration machines on a carefully protected segment of the local network and heavily restrict the communicative functions the learner's and teacher's computers support, but that detracts directly from their main purpose. There is no simple answer to the problem of management and security. Part of the cost of providing learners and teachers with the communicative and computing facilities they need is the cost of network management. While this is unlikely ever to be an easy task, VET institutions face much the same challenges as other companies and organisations, but magnified by the number of people they need to support, and the fact that many of them will be new to computing and Internet communications.
Computing hardware and software continually becomes less expensive, more powerful and more sophisticated. Lower levels in the system, such as hard-disc storage, modems, and graphic displays, over time become integrated and almost forgotten by most users as their costs drop and the centre of innovation moves to higher levels of the system.
The Internet provides very low cost methods of software marketing and delivery. It also greatly facilitates volunteers working on major software projects. Consequently a growing range of powerful application programs (and even some operating systems) are available without cost. Some of these, such as the Linux Unix compatible operating system, become defacto industry standards, with widespread adoption occurring despite virtually no marketing activity.
Shareware authors are able to provide their programs for free trial and at a modest registration price, a trend which will increase as electronic funds transfer mechanisms become more trusted and standardised. Consequently, over time, many valuable pieces of software and hardware will become available at very low prices or for free. While both the free- and share-ware models of software development result in products which may lack the polish and marketing prominence of commercial packages, the programs are often rapidly updated and the developers may respond with bug fixes within days.
Another example of a freely available program which has become an industry standard is the Apache Web server. This is the most widely used Web server on the Unix based servers which dominate the Internet, and a version for Windows NT is being developed.
Setting up and maintaining a computer can still be a major task, even for those with years of experience. Each system represents the integration of a complex set of hardware, operating system components and application software. Furthermore, the user has to maintain files and perform backups, as well as be able to use the major programs and cope with unexpected problems.
For a significant proportion of learners, these barriers to computer adoption are likely to be at least as important as the barriers of cost and of finding somewhere in the home to place the system. While many people will make the investment in money and effort to gain the benefits of computing and Internet connectivity, it is likely to be many years before the process becomes affordable and painless enough to be accepted by, say, 70% of the population.
In most workplaces and in many facets of education, workers and learners need to develop computer skills and gain access to computing facilities, just as it is assumed that most people know how to make phone calls, use automatic teller machines, read, write and have verbal communication skills.
This trend towards widespread 'computer' and 'Internet' literacy is proceeding at a rapid pace, but in the next two to five years it will not be sufficiently advanced for it to be assumed that VET teachers and learners will have all the skills required.
Simple email and Web browsing is easy to learn. Working in a group - which is a feature of almost all educational activities - requires a higher level of skill and organisation. Email, Web, word-processing and other programs need to be used with some sophistication. Good human communication skills are needed in any group working environment, especially one mediated without direct voice and face-to-face contact.
Distance education and use of computers in the classroom will be a significant part of many people's electronically mediated communications, and these will involve much the same skills, hardware and software as they would use for recreational, social and work-related purposes.
It could thus be argued, that instead of setting up special-purpose systems, based on the premise that teachers and learners will use only a restricted range of software and protocols, it might be better to provide them with open Internet and computer access with an emphasis on word-processing, email and Web access. The hardware, communication and training costs are significant, but the empowerment it delivers to learners and teachers directly - and in their ability to meet specific vocational educational goals - could be considerable.
Internet communications provides an excellent basis for distance-independent educational communications. The alternatives - modem calls, ISDN data calls, networking based on protocols which are incompatible with the Internet and approaches based solely on physical media such as CD-ROMs, floppy discs and printed matter - are far less flexible and likely to be more expensive.
Internet communications is clearly the foundation of a much richer communicative environment than that afforded by broadcast and print media, the telephone and physical computer media such as CD-ROMs. By embracing this paradigm wholly, at a relatively early stage, rather than little-by-little, the benefits of flexible delivery are likely to be maximised in both the short and the long-term.
Despite the attractions and growing ubiquity of Internet communications, some learners will not be able to access computers at home or nearby, and some will lack the skills or interest to use them. Internet communications cannot solve every possible need for flexible delivery. However its capacity to support flexible delivery - and in some cases provide enhanced access for those with disabilities - is without precedent.
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Last modified on February 26, 1998.