BKK Post / 18 November 1998 ANALYSIS / THAI-LAO RELATIONS Improved ties demand effort Relations with our neighbour to the northeast are progressing, especially given recent commitments to finally demarcating the border. Saritdet Marukatat Thailand and Laos need to be determined and persistent if they are to remove the remaining problems to better relations between the two countries, which are close culturally but quite different politically. The ambitious plan to eliminate border-related difficulties within five years now appears ready for launch after Vientiane stated its cooperation last week during the joint commission talks convened to seek ways of deepening relations. The "new vision" calls for cooperation on settling border problems by 2003, including completing the highly sensitive task of demarcating the 1,800-km-long common border. Although passing unnoticed amid the more pressing economic problems occupying both countries, the plan, advanced by Surin Pitsuwan, the foreign minister, during a visit to Vientiane in June, will bring tremendous benefits if it succeeds in turning the border into a problem-free zone. The border has been a major source of conflict since the Laos Revolutionary Party took over the reins of power in Vientiane in late 1975. Mr Surin's proposal comes amid a gradual warming of ties that hit rock bottom at the time of the military clash between the two countries in 1988 at Ban Rom Klao. Thailand is now ready to extend its ties with Laos beyond border talks to regional links, while landlocked Laos longs for a clear borderline with all neighbours. Fulfilment of the vision will solve a decade-long problem and clear the way for the two countries to concentrate on other substantive bilateral and regional issues, including those of economic importance. Meeting the deadline of 2003 would coincide with the scheduled launch in the same year of the Asean Free Trade Area (Afta) scheme by Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. Laos, together with Burma, will catch up in 2008, two years after Vietnam. Laos and Burma joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) last year. Laotian Prime Minister Sisavath Keobounphanh, during the National Assembly meeting in September, reminded Laotian lawmakers of the preparations for Afta, showing its high priority on Vientiane's agenda even though the leadership's main concern is the slump in the domestic economy. In order to ensure the realisation of the vision within five years, Thai and Laotian leaders have to send a clear signal to their negotiators. And they could do this soon at a summit in Bangkok between Gen Sisavath and Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai. Gen Sisavat's visit to Thailand is expected to take place early next year after the 50th anniversary celebrations of Laotian armed forces on Jan 20, a key event in that country's calendar alongside the launch of Visit Laos Year. A political push from the top is crucial as the two countries are heading towards the critical stages in their negotiations on the border problems. Having impressed observers by succeeding in marking 261 of the 702 kms of the border on land, Thai and Laotian negotiators now face the most difficult part of this joint operation: the demarcation of the border at the disputed Ban Rom Klao in Phitsanulok and surrounding three villages in Uttaradit. Vientiane considers both these spots to be part of the Laotian province of Sayaboury. A plan to close the last Indochinese refugee camp at Napho in Nakhon Phanom next year is also proceeding at snail's pace because the Laotian refugees, most of them hilltribe Hmong, are reluctant to return home out of fear for their safety. Vientiane has made clear it does not welcome unwilling returnees. This impasse has kept the repatriation mission - managed by Thailand, Laos and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees - in abeyance for several years. Complicating the issue is the presence of Laotian Hmong at Tham Krabok temple in Saraburi. While they continue their stay in Thailand, peace along the border remains wishful thinking as Vientiane suspects armed Hmong of cross-border raids into Laos. Hopes for a serious effort to end the border problems were raised after Gen Sisavath became premier early this year. The veteran soldier was army chief of staff in 1988 when he directed Laotian troops in the battle with Thai forces at Ban Rom Klao. He is known to appreciate the consequences of that conflict. What is missing is due attention from the Thai government towards Laos. Although the situation has eased after 17 months, Thailand is still struggling for its economic survival and the restoration of international confidence. In addition, Mr Surin's push for a change in Asean policy from its traditional emphasis on non-interference to a franker and more open engagement among member states has not gone down well in one-party Laos, which is not in favour of openness in political issues. For the vision to work and a real Thai-Lao partnership to blossom, the two sides need to be persuaded that diplomatic channels are the only way to overcome any differences. Laos, on its side, is worried about Thai domination in cultural and economic affairs. The Thai media is widely popular in the landlocked country. Although the leadership appreciates the need for trade with Thailand, they employ every means possible to protect their national interests. Thailand for years has been the main supplier of goods to Laos. Trade last year amounted to 13.64 billion baht, with Thailand enjoying a 10.17-billion-baht surplus. Laos's zealous protection of perceived national interests brings into question the sincerity and flexibility of its leadership in settling remaining problems with Thailand. But without this sincerity and flexibility, it will forever remain difficult to realise the vision shared by the Thai and Laotian leaders.