Kennett's winning style by Carlo Carli MP Jeff Kennett and his coalition went into the 1996 election with a lot of unpopular policies - opinion polls told us their policies on privatisation, transport, health, education had strong opposition. He called the election only days after 50% of Victorians had voted ALP federally. Yet the coalition won.

In the few weeks between elections, 4% of the electorate or 100,000 voters switched to the coalition. Unfortunately for Labor they were concentrated in key marginal seats.

The ALP, the party of the battler, was shocked that Labor did badly in seats on Melbourne's fringes. They are seats with high numbers of tradespeople, white collar workers, mortgagees, young families, wage-earners, and 18 to 30 year olds. The hurt for Labor was that these are constituencies Labor believes need a fair go from Government and that it best represents.

The electorate in recent years has become more volatile. More people are prepared to vote on "mood" rather than traditional loyalties. Pollsters had a rule of thumb from the 1970s that 5% of voters could be classified as swinging voters. Experts in the field now suggest that the figure could have risen to around 30%.

Elections are also more personality based. People now vote for or against Kennett, for and against Keating, as well as for or against parties. The image and personal style of Jeff Kennett is therefore a major factor in the Coalition's electoral success.

A key mistake of the Labor campaign was that we reinforced the focus on personality by aiming the campaign directly against Kennett - then we found that that the majority of Victorians did not hate him as much as we did. Jeff Kennett adopts a macho style; "take shit from no one", get the place on the move. This style has little appeal to a person who believes in process, consultation and civic debate. But Mr Kennett's style clearly has great appeal for young men. His love of fast cars, living for today, don't go to funerals looks like a young male caricature. His use of the marijuana issue during the election campaign was a calculated move to secure this constituency. The Kennett style of leadership is what the sociologist Max Weber called charismatic.

Weber describes this as a style which breaks through the accepted order. It introduces into the political arena an irrational process by which existing legal and traditional legitimation are broken; old allegiances can be severed and new ones created. It "rejects the past, and in this sense is specifically revolutionary". Classic Australian examples of charismatic politicians are Whitlam and Hawke. A characteristic of such politicians is that they are able to realign the voting patterns of many voters.

Jeff Kennett has used this leadership style and populist tactics to win support with political constituencies which were once assumed to be close to Labor. So we see the emergence of blue collar liberals and the unexpected surge of support for Kennett by young voters, especially young men.

A feature of recent Victorian politics has been criticism of Kennett by established elites. Church leaders, unionists, intellectuals, The Age, the ABC and cultural workers have attacked Kennett over issues such as pluralism, separation of powers, and social justice. Kennett has not been hurt by this criticism - he has shown disdain for the opinion of old elites.

Kennett avoids having his image created by the media he so much distrusts. He prefers to "talk" directly to the people by selective use of radio and the enormous Government publicity machine.

Kennett has maintained the fiction that Victoria is engulfed in a crisis created by a big-spending ALP. Achievements of the Labor government have been co-opted, overturned or written out of history. All it is remembered for is the debt. The ongoing "debt crisis" provides an all purpose justification for service cuts and privatisation. Labor has done little to counter the Kennett version of its history.

Jeff Kennett claims the orthodox liberal values of his party: family, tradition, standards. But he is also a revolutionary of the new right, who champions self interest, competitive individualism and contempt for public service. Kennett the radical seeks to destroy the old norms and consensus and reconstruct the world.

The ALP, which has for a long time presented itself as the party of change and reform, has been thrown off balance by a right wing opponent who creates change, instead of the conservatives we had been used to. We have found ourselves ill prepared to explain how our change is different from his change. One lesson in this is that opposition to Kennett cannot be fought out through the leadership game, because you can't win against an opponent who tears up the rules. Kennett has made that his territory and it is pointless to engage him there.

Kennett is a strong leader followed by a motley collection of nervous followers. His ruck is afraid to have opinions because he is so unpredictable. Labor's strength is in its ability to play a team game. Labor can be a united team with a clear game plan. But before we can go into an election with a set of elaborated policies, the ALP has to convey a clear message about principles.

Mr Kennett has one principle: love Victoria and get things done. He drives it through single mindedly, regardless of how it tramples on tradition, law, equity or rights.

Labor has strong principles - such as the fair go - and they are well understood within the party and in areas where the ALP vote is strong. The ALP polled well in areas where it has a strong organisation and a strong presence on the ground. There the party can show that the coalition's local members and branches are all implicated in and responsible for Kennett's decisions. ALP members involved in local and community politics in these areas provide a continuing demonstration of the strength of Labor's principles and how they inform our policies and actions. We need to spread that familiarity and understanding.

The ALP polled well in areas where it has a strong organisation and a strong presence on the ground. There the party can show that the coalition's local members and branches are all implicated in and responsible for Kennett's decisions. Obviously to play this game, the ALP's local organisation has to be greatly strengthened as well as its community networks.

As a practised communicator Mr Kennett illustrates the need to state principles clearly and simply. Basically he wants to get Victoria moving and make it the best. Labor should genuinely want the same, but it can improve on Kennett by making Victoria the best and fairest.

There is no more fundamental Labor principle than that of a fair go and none that marks Labor out so clearly from the present Coalition in Victoria. It is a principle that transaltes into daily realities and can shape Labor policies. Most importantly, I believe, it is a principle that still has the power over the Australian imagination.

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