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6-2-08, Wednesday 8:45am: Severe storm potential is certainly there for us today although areas further north are the greater chance of this. If you have a look at the BoM sat loop you will see the interplay between the surface trough and upper trough already, which is impressive for this time of the day. Usually it takes a bit longer into the day for things to kick into gear as more heat is introduced into the equation. That upper trough is significant! Hail, possibly large, and also damaging winds could be a feature in SE QLD and NE NSW. The Blue Mountains could also cop it later on today so take all the usual precautions when severe weather is potentially there. I'd say about a 40 to 50% chance of storms for our area later and about a 20% chance of a severe storm, ie: hail larger than 2cm, winds over 90kph and flash flooding.
4-2-08, Monday 6pm: Some very good rain in the last 24 hours with more than 50mm from my gauge. Blackheath tends to get more rainfall than Mount Boyce AWS in these conditions as the escarpment to our east will force the moist air up and over the township. This then concentrates and enhances uplift, which will bring heavier rainfall to town, especially to areas closest to the Grose Valley. It could get even heavier tonight with a low pressure system likely to develop off the coast. Depending on exactly how and where it moves overnight will be reflected in local rainfall totals overnight and into tomorrow. Thanks to the steady trickle of 'hello' emails I've received over recent weeks, its always appreciated. :-)
31-1-08, Thursday 8:30am: A number of storms converged on Blackheath at around 4pm yesterday. I'm not sure I've ever seen mammatus cloud coming in from so many directions as I did yesterday. Huge anvils were rolling in from the SW, W and NW and with them came some strong cloud to ground lightning strikes. A blackout occured in town for around three hours before power was restored around 7:15pm. No hail of note was evident and only 9.5mm was recorded in my gauge. Other areas may have had much more intense activity, please let me know if you heard of more severe storms in the area as its always good to record such things.
We have a very unstable atmosphere again today and with the slightly stronger mid level winds, we could see more widespread severe storms today. The Sydney basin has a better chance of seeing something this afternoon. Heavy showers, strong winds and hail could all be features this afternoon so be prepared; unplug as many electrical items as possible if you are away from the home or office this afternoon.
29-1-08, Tuesday 6:30pm: A quite powerful storm hit Blackheath at around 4pm today. Hail to 2cm in size (but mostly 1 to 1.5cm) fell quite intensely although it melted fairly fast thanks to the short, powerful bursts of rain. Some wonderful cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning occured and 13mm was recorded in my gauge in southern Blackeath during the storm. The upper levels weren't very cold at all but surface temps were quite high (near 30C) so this helped produce good instability. It seems Mount Boyce AWS recorded nothing at all. This may have been due to a problem with hail in the tipping bucket but more likely because the storm came in from the SW and moved NE, missing Mt Boyce altogether. It could get stormy again tomorrow but Thursday at this stage is looking more promising and indeed could produce severe storms.
29-1-08, Tuesday 9:30am: There is about a 50% to 60% chance of more rainfall in the form of storms by around Thursday for the Blue Mountains. Severe storms could also occur at this time but that will become clearer by Thursday morning, when the weather balloon, upper air sounding is available. There is also about a 20% to 30% chance that an isolated storm may pop up later today, a bit like yesterdays storm to our north.
14-1-08, Monday 9:10am: Some good storms passed over Blackheath yesterday afternoon and evening. Quite a few lightning strikes and some very close ones at that. No hail observed here except for a few small bits of ice now and then. My gauge in southern Blackheath recieved roughly double what the Mt Boyce AWS did, just a few kilometres to the north. 14.5mm to 9am this morning here with light drizzle continuing. There's a slight chance of more storms today but Wednesday looks the next good day at this stage.
2-1-08, Wednesday 8:15pm: Happy New Year to all those that visit Blackheath Weather! Well, I was a little off target with my predictions of cool to mild weather as it has been glorious of late. The complex low off the coast of QLD caused NE winds for our area rather than easterly or south easterly winds so it has been generally warm of late. Cloudiness and some drizzle or rain should gradually develop over coming days and maybe also some storms later in the peace. For those that are interested, our backyard pond has benefitted well from the good rains in November and December. There are roughly 200 eastern froglet tadpoles and hundreds of freshly laid pobblebonk eggs as well. There are also around 50 White Cloud Mountain Minnows from the orginal 10 put in the pond about two months ago. These little fish are good for ponds as they don't usually eat tadpoles or frog eggs but devour mosquito larvae. Of course, its always important to make sure your pond or dam has no drainage points into local creeks to prevent non native fish breeding locally.
28-12-07, Friday 9:15am: Hope everyone had a good Christmas. It looks like this very cool December will continue with average maximum temps currently around 3C below the long term average. With the onshore pattern set to continue, we are in for more mild to warm days this week and not much real heat. Still, we have been 'spoilt' for years with some very warm and dry summers up here so whilst it is cool and damp at present, the waterfalls and fernery etc are looking amazing. There will be sunny days of course but the general trend will be for more stormy days followed by misty ones!
22-12-07, Saturday 4:07pm: A pretty impressive frontal system indeed with excellent rainfall across numerous parts of western NSW. My gauge recorded 13.3mm to 9am this morning with some brief and moderately intense showers since then. You can see the cool air, convective field now moving into NSW which will guarantee a chilly morning tomorrow, with a minimum temp quite likely to be in single figures. There is a chance of some showers tomorrow but it shouldn't be too much.
21-12-07, Friday 1:30pm: A particularly strong frontal system is heading across the SE of Australia over the next twenty four hours. Strong winds, hail and intense shower activity could all be features of this system. For the upper mountains the weather will start to close in later today with possible heavy rain, strong winds and maybe hail. Keep an eye on the latest warnings on the main page.
14-12-07, Friday 9am: Well after a damp week and indeed a damp month or so, we are now in for some brief respite. A day or two of relatively fine weather is in store before the unsettled weather returns by about Sunday.
9-12-07, Sunday 8pm: A powerful looking storm passed over Blackheath some time after 2pm but only produced small hail and light rain as it was still developing. This storm may well have been related to the severe storm that formed across western Sydney - I haven't checked radar archives as yet - it brought large hail to my relatives house in Seven Hills. Head to the photos link above to view hail up to 7cm in diameter!
7-12-07, Friday 9:15am: Another day where the atmosphere is primed for some explosive development across the central ranges and indeed in other places too. Directional shear is reasonable throughout the layers and speed shear in the steering levels is also okay so even Sydney should see storms later. Add to this the healthy CAPE figures combined with lifted indexes well into the negatives and we have an environment ready for action. As usual, storms are scattered so not every town or area will see them but be warned, it could get a bit nasty later on. The weekend is also shaping up as a stormy time.
3-12-07, Monday 9:05am: Well, the atmosphere is primed for instability today across the central tablelands. Probably the only ingredient that isn't really strong is mid level wind shear, so storms will be more focussed on the ranges rather than in Sydney. Still, the city is a reasonable chance of seeing storms later today. Across the Blue Mountains we could see flash flooding, strong winds and possibly hail later this afternoon. As always, storms are isolated pockets of instability so not every area will see something. Regardless, its definitely a day to unplug your electrical equipment if you are away from the home or office for extended periods. And don't park your car under a gum tree!
3-12-07, Monday 9am: 305.3mm from my home office site was the November rainfall total in Blackheath. 290.8mm was the total from Mt Boyce AWS but this station missed at least one day due to a possible lightning strike and sadly this missed data can never be retrieved. In comparison, more records from Wombat Street in Blackheath show a total of 345mm for November. Even without considering the missing data from Mount Boyce, its still common to have varying rainfall figures over relatively small areas, especially in spring and summer. As we know, storms can be hit and miss and bring heavier showers to one spot and much less to another. Maximum November temps for my area at 19.5C were 0.2C below the average and our average minimum was 11C which was 1.5C above the average. This November also recorded the highest monthly rainfall ever for November at Mt Boyce (290.8mm) although its important to remember this is a short terms obs site that only dates back to the late 1980s.
1-12-07, Saturday 8am: Some extraordinary falls this month have left us with more than 300mm from my gauge for November. That is pretty rare up this way. The town is so green and the waterfalls are heavy. As time permits I will provide more details of the accumulations.
23-11-07, Friday 10:10am: The showers continued steadily last night until around 10pm but not with the intensity of earlier in the night. To 9am this morning, 41.4mm has fallen in my gauge with some light drizzle and mist since then.
22-11-07, Thursday 7:15pm: From about 6pm to 6:25pm tonight my gauge has recorded approximately 25mm of quite intense rainfall. Over 30mm has now been recorded this afternoon and its still raining moderately at present. Some of the cloud to ground lightning strikes have been ground shaking and very impressive.
22-11-07, Thursday 8:30am: 17.3mm overnight and that should be our total to 9am today. Some ground shaking thunder in town yesterday and last night but no hail of note. We did have two prolonged blackouts; one in the afternoon when thousands of homes were blacked out in the mountains and another blackout just after dinner. A storm in Katoomba brought quite intense hail at around 3pm but the hail wasn't large, from what I have heard. This was probably related to the lack of strong directional and speed wind shear in the storms yesterday. Today may be different. We have a significant upper cold pool that should interact with the surface trough to provide good instability across eastern NSW.
There is a very moist atmosphere through the layers, so large hail is not as likely as heavy rain. Still, its always good to be prepared for hail, just in case. Flash flooding could certainly be a feature as we move into today across the central tablelands. Lightning could also be signficant so be careful if you are out and about. Sydney also has a chance of hail storms (more likely smaller hail) and/or flash flooding as we move into the afternoon and evening. Lightning could also be a dangerous feature down there. As usual, storms are isolated or scattered in nature so not all areas will receive good falls. Still, I would certainly unplug electrical equipment today if you leave your home or office unattended.